India represents one of the most paradoxical wine markets globally: vast in population and economic scale, yet modest in wine consumption and highly regulated.
While current volumes remain limited, long-term projections indicate that India could emerge as a meaningful growth market for wine by the end of the decade.
Based on UN Comtrade and WITS data, wine imports in 2024 are expected to reach around 9.5 million liters, while total domestic consumption exceeds 27 million liters annually. Estimates of market value vary widely, ranging from USD 150–200 million, with more optimistic assessments placing the market at USD 229 million. These discrepancies reflect both data limitations and the fragmented nature of the Indian alcohol trade.
Import Structure and Supplier Landscape
India’s wine imports are heavily skewed toward bottled still wines, which account for the majority of volumes. Sparkling wines, though smaller in volume, command higher prices and contribute significantly to total import value. The leading supplier countries—Australia, France, Italy, Chile, and Spain—compete primarily in metropolitan areas and the hospitality sector.
Data analysis for recent years has required adjustments due to inconsistencies in India’s reported import values, particularly for Spanish wines in 2023. As a result, analysts increasingly rely on export-side (mirror) data to assess pricing and volume trends more accurately.
Regulation, Tariffs, and Market Access
Tariffs remain the most decisive factor affecting imported wine pricing. Even after recent trade agreements, import duties remain exceptionally high compared to other markets. The Australia–India interim agreement offers a rare example of gradual liberalization, with tariff reductions tied to bottle price thresholds and phased over a ten-year horizon. Negotiations with New Zealand suggest a similar structure may emerge, but progress remains slow.
Beyond tariffs, compliance with FSSAI regulations adds complexity. Labeling standards are detailed and strictly enforced, and imported alcoholic beverages must meet additional regulatory requirements introduced in 2017. These measures raise entry costs and discourage frequent portfolio rotation, favoring established brands over niche or small-volume producers.
A Fragmented System, But Rising Momentum
India’s alcohol market lacks national uniformity, with each state applying its own taxation, distribution, and licensing rules. Marketing restrictions further limit brand visibility. Nevertheless, the sector as a whole is expanding, with total alcohol revenues estimated at USD 44 billion, projected to grow to USD 55 billion by 2027.
Within this environment, wine remains a niche category, but one with favorable demographics: urban consumers, rising disposable incomes, exposure to international lifestyles, and growing interest in premium and experiential consumption.
Scenarios for Growth Through 2030
Forward-looking projections suggest that India’s wine market could more than double by 2030. In a baseline scenario, market value is expected to reach USD 530 million, with annual consumption exceeding 62 million liters. An optimistic scenario—assuming improved trade conditions, logistical efficiencies, and cultural acceptance—foresees a market value of USD 567 million and volumes close to 73 million liters.
Imports are expected to play an increasing role, rising to between 15 and 22 million liters annually, particularly if tariff reductions expand beyond current bilateral agreements.
The trajectory of India’s wine market will ultimately depend on trade policy evolution, regulatory reform, and the industry’s ability to adapt offerings to local preferences. For producers willing to invest in compliance, education, and long-term brand building, India represents a challenging but potentially rewarding frontier.
Source: Vinetur
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